Statistical extrapolation in Medicare and Medicaid audits can be problematical. They are not always done correctly, and it actually has been our experience that they frequently are not done correctly at all.
Steven E. Skwara identifies three challenges that can be made against statistical sampling in health care fraud cases:
- Reproducibility. If the results can not be reproduced, then there is reasonable argument that the results are not scientific. Documentation is crucial.
- Sample Size. Larger sample, more accurate results. There is a great deal of leeway given by Medicare courts.
- Variability. This is not often looked for, but a high degree of variability in the data may signal problems. Ask your statistician.